ATP Tennis 2018 June 5 FRENCH OPEN

A beauty day. Called every match perfectly, albeit, I admit, that Diego/KA over did not look promising after the second set. Or really at any point in the third set… or really , at any point in the fourth set.
Whatever, who can complain about going 4–0?

Two futures remain, and I feel pretty good about both. Novak just needs to beat Cinderella story Marco Cecchinato, and Rafa continues to be gifted an easy draw, as he faces Diego Schwartzman, someone he has beaten five straight times, losing only one set. I’m going to cover all four quarter-finals today as I need all four to get my plays in.

Rafa ml. Rafa 3–0.

It is certainly odd to see someone who is ranked #4 in the world and who owns a grand slam title carrying a 2–10 record against someone. Delpo dominates this head-to-head, having won seven straight matches, two since his come back and five before he took 2014 and 2015 off. It is hard to buck a head-to-head like that and while both guys are playing strong, Cilic has only hampered his attempt to over-throw the head-to-head, by racking up 150 games played in Roland Garros. That’s thirty-two more than Delpo and it includes a crazy five setter with Fognini on Monday. Delpo had a weird first set of the tournament, losing 16 to Mahut, before reeling off the last twelve sets in succession.
The previous two years show Cilic with better clay numbers but, you have to ask the question, how healthy and active was Delpo during 2016 and 2017 (he only played 10 matches on clay in 2017)? In 2018, Delpo’s hold/break stats blow Cilic away and it’s this I’ll be relying on. I’ll take the Delpo moneyline?

Djoker is back. There isn’t much to handicap here as I predicted Djoker to win the quarter and that looks pretty attainable. Cecchinato is having a dream week and it should come to a close here. Djoker to win in straight sets is plausible, as he has only lost one set so far in Roland Garros. He hasn’t looked entirely dominate but, he has has stretches recently — like in his last two matches — where he looked solid. And solid should get him by Cecchinato in straights.

The blockbuster we have all been waiting for. This is probably the most anticipated match-up of the French Open (ok, maybe it’s AZ/Rafa in the final or Thiem/Joker in the semis, but, come on, this is going to be great). Thiem and Zverev have played six times and Thiem holds the advantage 4–2, although, you wouldn’t know it by the result of their latest encounter. Zverev rolled through Thiem in the final at Madrid and in fact, three of Thiem’s wins came in 2016 when Zverev was only 19 years old.
While Thiem has long been looked at as the next dominant clay player on tour, in 2018 Zverev actually has much better hold/break numbers on the red stuff and comes into this match on a 17–1 run (with that lone loss coming against the greatest clay player of all time).
Zverev has long been derided for having terrible success at slams and in fifth sets. But, he has put paid to that concern at Roland Garros by winning his last three matches in five set affairs. Previously, Zverev has had a lot of experience leading two sets to one and then blowing the fourth and fifth set. In this years French, Zverev has spent it going down two sets to one and then making dramatic comebacks all three times.
Zverev is the ascendent player and I think he takes Thiem out here.

Rafa ml, -5000 x 1.0476
Rafa 3–0, -450 x 1.8246
Joker 3–0/Delpo ml, +135
Zverev ml, +137

Good Luck,

PS: Surbiton, the first grass tournament of the year, albeit a Challenger level one, is on-going this week. I broke down some plays yesterday which went 1–1 (Kudla/DeMinaur came through, while Fratangelo blew a third set tiebreak).
There are nine matches on the grass on Tuesday and if you have to get down on some green tennis, I would recommend hitting Kokkinakis -150.

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